挪威’司法部已大大减少了预计今年将抵达该国的难民人数，降至“most probably” 25,000 from as many as 60,000 predicted earlier. Frode 福芳, director of 移民 agency UDI, has expressed uncertainty, though, since the numbers hinge on 庇护 policy and the degree of border controls both around 挪威 and Europe’s Schengen area.
更严格的边境管制和欧盟’该部上周与土耳其达成的关于难民回返和后续安置的协议由该部支持’s lower estimates of 庇护 seekers coming to 挪威. 新闻 bureau NTB reported that the new numbers were issued in connection with preparation of the revised state budget that the 政府 will present in May.
When the state budget for 2016 was presented last fall, the 政府 predicted anywhere from 10,000 to 60,000 庇护 seekers could arrive in 挪威 this year, with 33,000 viewed as the “most probable.” Now that’已向下调整为“5,000至50,000之间，” with the “most probable”级别设置为25,000。
挪威’保守的政府根据另一个数字“probability,” in its opinion, that recent border controls imposed around Europe (and 挪威) to prevent 难民 from arriving will remain in place. The 政府 just last week decided to keep Norway’自己的严格控制措施至少持续了一个月。
福芳 agrees the numbers of refugee arrivals are likely to decline from the record influx of last year. He continues to warn of uncertainty, though, because the EU-Turkey agreement may lead to “需求与期望”欧盟内部的边境管制’申根区被拆除。他告诉报纸 达根斯·纳林斯利夫（DN） that while the 庇护 stream to the EU may decline, it could increase to 挪威, which is not a member of the EU. He said 挪威 must still be prepared for “major swings”随时间流逝的难民人数
福芳, on earlier occasions, has also issued calls for a thorough re-evaluation of 庇护 procedures that haven’能够解决当前的移民危机。他敦促以一种全面的配额制度取代目前流向各国寻求庇护的难民的做法，例如，这将使负担更公平地分配给欧洲所有国家。
While that proposal won support within various political parties, 福芳 has stirred controversy over his predictions about border control and his concerns that 挪威’拟议的加强庇护政策 can instead set off another refugee wave. He has noted, for example, that 80 percent of the roughly 35,000 庇护 seekers who arrived in 挪威 last year were men. Tougher rules that could prevent their families from joining them could set off another wave of illegal migration, he fears.
福芳’对难民问题避风港的看法’挪威反移民进步党的移民发言人完全满意’s conservative 政府 coalition. It objects to 福芳’关于司法部的警告’s numbers. “UDI主管应专注于他在挪威的工作，而不是冒充外交政策评论员，” the Progress Party’的Mazyar Keshvari，’自己是移民家庭的产物 克拉瑟坎彭.
克什瓦里本人要求无论欧盟做什么，都必须保持更严格的边境管制。他没有’t object to 福芳’s proposal to revamp 庇护 procedures, but he does object to 福芳’关于边境管制的专业观点，显然是因为它们与政府相抵触’s.
DN commentator Eva Grinde lashed back at Keshvari on Tuesday, lauding 福芳 for being facts-oriented and suggesting means of replacing chaos with order in a “sober” manner. “福芳是一个纯粹的实用主义者，是一个以事实为导向的人，对其他人了解的很少’s talking about,” Grinde wrote. She scolded Keshvari for trying to muzzle 福芳’的专业意见。
More facts on the actual refugee influx from 福芳’UDI也应运而生。在3月的前三周，UDI仅登记了230名寻求庇护者的到来，这是去年年底到达的人数的一小部分。叙利亚只有37个国家，叙利亚是该国的大部分寻求庇护者，至少在这些国家拥有暂时居留权，可以留在挪威。寻求庇护的人数最多的是阿富汗，本月迄今已有40人抵达。
在收到庇护后，UDI也停止了将寻求庇护者返回俄罗斯“new information”俄罗斯当局已将一些寻求庇护者强行送回叙利亚。“现在只有与俄罗斯有联系的叙利亚人才能返回，”UDI部门总监Vesna Curk对NTB说。“The others will have their cases evaluated in 挪威.”